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    San Diego Finance

    STOCKS WITH SCOTT: Learning From History

    Some perspective on the recent financial crisis

    By Wed, Nov 10th, 2010

    With the financial crisis of 2008/2009 still close at hand but far enough removed to allow for some perspective, now is an ideal time to note the important ‘take aways’ from one of the most dramatic stock market periods of a generation.

    Stock market advice

    1. Always invest in the strongest companies. When times are good, even weak stocks can shine. But economies, like markets, go through cycles, and the strong invariably survive while the weak often fall by the wayside. Stick with the #1 or #2 companies in a given industry. There is a reason why Coca-Cola has been around for a hundred years and will likely be around for the remainder of our lifetimes.

    2. Balance sheets matter! The 1990s were the decade of top line growth when it was all about the profit & loss statement. Balance sheet analysis was rarely an important consideration. Yet when times get tough, assets and liabilities – whether personal or corporate – can make the difference between thriving and not surviving. Make sure companies you are investing in are not over leveraged (and apply the same lesson to your own financial situation!).

    3. Stock prices can move very quickly – in both directions. Even prices of well established companies like Microsoft or others can go down and back up 50% or more in a matter of months. Continue to focus on the long-term, and don’t be in a position (read: don’t be over leveraged) where you have to sell on weakness.

    4. Having a professional at your side can keep you from making permanently damaging mistakes. Money has a large emotional component, and unfortunately most investors’ brains are not ‘wired’ to make intelligent investment decisions. By having an objective third party on your team, you can maintain a perspective that will keep you from taking actions in the moment that you will later regret.

    5. Make investment decisions based on what could be in the future as opposed to what exists today. As the great Wayne Gretzky is known to have said, skate to where the puck will be, not to where it is. The same applies to investing. When things look bad, as they did in the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009, it seems as though the world is coming to an end. But economies are resilient and markets have rebounded from every tragedy, financial or otherwise, known to man. The key is taking yourself out of the moment so that investment decisions you are making line up with your financial time horizon. If you don’t need the money for several years, project what the economy and markets might look like three to five years hence, not how horrible things seem ‘today’. That will lead to better decision making in the present, and a larger wallet in the future.


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